EARLY IDENTIFICATION OF OPPORTUNITY
TREND ANALYSIS

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna Teams Up With AOC to Take on Greedy Credit Card Companies

EXCERPT

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) has found an unlikely ally in her bid to take on credit card companies.

The second-term Congresswoman has worked together with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to ban credit card companies from charging more than 10 percent interest.

Together, the two women introduced legislation on Friday that would see this rule come into effect.

“For too long, credit card companies have abused working-class Americans with absurd interest rates, trapping them in an almost insurmountable amount of debt,” Luna said in a statement.

“We need a fair solution – and that means getting rid of the status quo and putting a reasonable cap on interest rates,” she continued.

“Credit cards with high interest rates regularly trap working people in endless cycles of debt.”

”At a time when families are struggling to make ends meet, we cannot allow big banks to shake down our communities for profit.”

President Trump pledges significant policy shifts upon his return to the White House. 

What could they mean for the housing market?

Key takeaways:

• Buyers will likely see mortgage rates around 7%, rising house prices, and more home sales.

• Sellers may see a slight uptick in buyer demand and home sales, but it could be another slow year.

• Renters might catch a break. Higher house prices will push more people into renting, while flat rent growth and rising wages will make rentals more affordable. Low-income families and those using government assistance will likely have a harder time, though.

President Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20th, supported by a Republican-controlled Congress with plans to advance his agenda.

One of the most pressing issues he faces is the housing affordability crisis, which was a central issue in the run-up to the election and helped flip some voters in particularly unaffordable areas. Many people have been understandably frustrated with skyrocketing costs and limited supply over the past four years.

So, to help you navigate the next four years and beyond, let’s take a look at how a second Trump presidency could impact buyers, sellers, and renters.

What a Trump presidency may mean for homebuyers

The president promises significant changes to the economy and housing market. Here’s what homebuyers could see in the next four years:

1. Mortgage rates will likely stay put

Buyers should expect mortgage interest rates to remain elevated and volatile for the foreseeable future. Following the election, mortgage rates surged to around 7% in anticipation of Trump’s policies – where they will likely remain through 2025. However, everything hinges on what Trump decides to do.

Trump has plans to impose tariffs, reduce taxes, and eliminate inflation, all of which influence mortgage rates. Mortgage rates and inflation are particularly intertwined.

Experts fear that tariffs may reignite inflation and slow global economic growth, although Trump recently backed off imposing them on day one. Inflation has steadily dropped from its 2022 peak, but could reverse course if Trump follows through on his agenda. Tax cuts would also increase the national debt unless they were offset by spending cuts. Investors have already baked expected changes into today’s mortgage rates, but if inflation rises more than expected, mortgage rates would probably follow suit.

Trump has also promised to lower interest rates, which affects mortgage rates. However, since mortgage rates are set by the bond market via investors, it’s largely out of his control.

Investors believe that if Trump implements his policies, and the economy stays strong, the Fed will only cut interest rates once in 2025. However, if the economy weakens or the plans for tariffs and tax cuts are dialed back, the Fed could cut more and mortgage rates could fall. In general, the housing market will be unpredictable.

2. Home prices may rise

Redfin expects house prices to continue rising through 2025, as there may not be enough inventory to meet demand. Prices have hovered near record highs for months, leading to record-low affordability and few sales. However, prices may fall in places most affected by climate change.

Trump has pledged to lower housing costs by building more homes. He wants to encourage homebuilding by reducing regulations, extending his 2017 tax cuts (TCJA), and opening federal land for development.

Reducing regulations will likely help improve supply, but Redfin believes these proposals won’t fully address the current affordability crisis for three reasons:

• Local regulations – not federal ones – control much of the building process;

• The TCJA reduces tax benefits for homeownership, hurts the economy, and benefits the highest earners;

• Opening federal land for development will only make a small dent in bringing down prices, partly because most federal land is in the West.

3. Demand could come back

Homebuyer demand has been low for most of the year, but it notably increased before the election on the heels of two Fed rate cuts. And defying expectations, it rose again following the election and into 2025, even with elevated mortgage rates, sky-high house prices, and a murkier outlook.

Pending U.S. home sales are also creeping back up, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index recently hit its highest level since 2023. Demand seems likely to hold strong this year, so now may be a good time to enter the market and get ahead of competition.

4. Housing supply may slightly improve

Supply may improve if Trump lifts building regulations, which currently add an estimated $94,000 to the cost of a new house. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has expressed increased confidence that under a Republican congress, development may be easier. We would need to see actual regulation change for this to prove true.

New construction has slowed down recently, but fewer regulations could bring some relief to the industry. Estimates suggest there is now a shortage of between 2 to 5 million homes for sale, which is driving up prices.

Aside from deregulating the industry, though, Redfin Senior Economist Chen Zhao believes Trump’s immigration policies, specifically his calls to restrict border crossings and perhaps start mass deportation, could reduce the construction workforce, making it more expensive to build homes. Trump has already signed an executive order attempting to limit immigration. About a third of construction workers in the U.S. are immigrants, and nearly 14% are undocumented. His plan to build homes on federal land could help but has been met with mixed reviews.

What a Trump presidency may mean for home sellers

Home sellers may see a slight uptick in home sales, although a lot is up in the air. Here’s what sellers might be in for under a Trump administration:

1. Homes sales may increase but could remain in a historic slump

Home sellers could see more home sales, but we don’t predict any major improvements as the market grapples with Trump’s policies and an affordability crisis. An exception may be among lower-priced homes, as older buyers priced out of higher price tiers snap up homes they can afford.

2024 was a historically slow year for home sales, leaving the industry feeling “frozen.” Now, because of Trump’s reelection, Redfin expects home sales to improve, albeit marginally. Sales posted an increase in October and held strong in November. If the economy stays strong and mortgage rates decline more than expected, sales will likely improve further in 2025.

Trump plans to improve affordability and boost housing stock by reducing regulations and building on federal land. However, his promises for tariffs and deportations would be quite disruptive to the economy and may undo gains made elsewhere.

2. Sellers could see more demand

Buyer demand could reverse course and improve. Homebuyer activity jumped immediately after the election. Plus, the Fed cut interest rates three months in a row to close out 2024, although just one cut is expected this year. Since mortgage rates aren’t expected to fall significantly anytime soon, many buyers don’t feel like they have much reason to wait. Time will tell if recent spikes in demand are signs of a longer trend.

However, some experts believe housing affordability could decline under a Trump presidency. Depending on how the proposed tariffs, deportations, and tax cuts pan out, they could negatively impact the housing market and harm demand.

3. House prices will likely continue rising

A severe inventory shortage and pent-up buyer demand will probably allow house prices to continue their steady rise into the new year. Redfin expects prices to rise by 4% in 2025.

Trump’s proposed solutions to build more homes and bring down prices are unlikely to improve the situation. In fact, construction may slow and inflation could rise if he deports migrants and imposes tariffs. The prospect of fewer regulations has brought optimism to homebuilders, though.

Even if mortgage rates do end up falling, more buyers would likely then enter the market, which will boost prices. It will take a few years for the increase in homebuilding to make housing significantly more affordable.

What a Trump presidency may mean for renters

Donald Trump has offered few details on how he will assist renters. There are a couple of hypotheses we can make, though:

1. Rental affordability may improve

Renters can expect rents to hold steady through 2025, as new units continue hitting the market. Flat rents plus rising wages equals more affordable rentals.

Even though multifamily construction has dropped, affordability could further improve under a new administration. Trump’s plan to deregulate the industry and remove permit requirements may bolster supply. Supply and demand are the primary drivers behind rent prices.

This could help bring down the share of cost-burdened renters, too. Today, more than half of all renters are rent-burdened, and most low-income renters can’t afford a one-bedroom unit.

However, beyond reducing regulations, Trump’s promises to impose tariffs and deport migrants will likely negatively impact the rental market. Tariffs could hike building costs and slow new construction (supply), which would be passed onto the consumer in the form of higher rents. Deporting migrants will harm the construction industry.

2. Government assistance could be cut

Low-income renters will likely be hit hard, especially those relying on government housing assistance. Trump has previously called to defund housing assistance, which would have raised rents for the most vulnerable populations.

Groups that advocate for low-income housing fear that the new administration will again try to cut funding to affordable housing programs. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in particular is expected to have its budget slashed. This would push the burden to cities and states, who would almost certainly be unable to maintain current funding. Some groups are excited about moving housing programs to individual states and reducing federal spending. Others are concerned about how programs will be affected.

Nonetheless, several local pro-affordable housing ballot measures have passed recently, which shows that there is support to maintain programs at the community level.

Those relying on Supplemental Security Income (SSI), making minimum wage, and/or living in poverty generally can’t afford housing and turn to government assistance programs – many of which are provided by HUD. Without funding, these programs would be unable to serve an already overwhelming number of people. Housing Choice Vouchers (Section 8), Community Development Block Grants, and Public Housing are most likely to be affected.

Final thoughts

Donald Trump’s second term promises many changes to the housing market. His proposals to ease regulations and open federal land for new development could help improve supply and affordability. On the other hand, imposing tariffs and deporting migrants would have consequences for inflation, affordability, and housing supply.

A lot might change over the next four years. If you’re in the market for a home or rental, or looking to sell, it’s especially important to stay informed, talk with your agent or landlord, and not lose sight of finding your home. January 17, 2025 by Jamie Forbes @ Redfin

My home office is in Florida. However, reach out to me, if your not already working with a realtor, and I can connect you with the best near where your property is, to help you reach your real estate goals as soon as you are ready!!

Tracy Busch Pate

Realtor®

Commercial & Residential Specialist

Cell: (305) 975-3404

Email: BeingTracy21@gmail.com

Existing home sales fell 4.9% in January, continuing slump

Existing home sales retreated in January, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dropped 4.9% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. Year-over-year, sales gained 2% (up from 4 million in January 2024).

"Mortgage rates have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. "When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge."

Total housing inventory at the end of January was 1.18 million units, a 3.5% increase from December and up 16.8% from one year ago (1.01 million). Unsold inventory stood at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.2 months in December and 3 months in January 2024. A six-month supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Total housing inventory at the end of January was 1.18 million units, a 3.5% increase from December and up 16.8% from one year ago (1.01 million). Unsold inventory stood at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.2 months in December and 3 months in January 2024. A six-month supply is generally considered a balanced market.

Crypto industry leaders have been testifying on Capitol Hill about the industry’s struggle with debanking during the Biden administration.

After years of regulatory challenges, crypto execs now have allies across Washington, D.C.

“We had a bank that we had a growing relationship with for a number of years, who basically on a dime, decided to turn off our bank account,” Nathan McCauley, CEO of Anchorage Digital, told lawmakers this month.

EXCERPT

Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley wants everyone to know what happened to his crypto company in 2023 during the Biden administration.

“Our story is pretty ridiculous,” McCauley told CNBC in an interview after testifying at a Senate hearing, titled, “Investigating the Real Impacts of Debanking in America,” earlier this month. “We had a bank that we had a growing relationship with for a number of years, who basically on a dime, decided to turn off our bank account.”

No explanation. No warning. After two years working with the bank, access was cut off. He didn’t name the bank and an Anchorage spokesperson said the company is declining to provide it.

McCauley’s peers across the crypto industry have shared similar sagas about being locked out of the U.S. financial system, losing access to payroll, checking accounts and payment processing. Industry leaders call it “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” an alleged coordinated effort by regulators during the Biden presidency to pressure banks into severing ties with crypto. The 1.0 version, they say, occurred when the Obama administration went after banks that backed gun manufacturers and payday lenders.

With the word “debanking,” crypto execs and investors have found immediate allies among top Republicans in both houses of Congress and in the White House, who are ready and willing to investigate any potential malfeasance that occurred when Democrats were in charge.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/15/crypto-trump-gop-leadershipo-gang-up-on-fdic-over-debanking-.html?__source=androidappshare

Loveless Sex Is Not Empowering

Hookup culture benefits men at the expense of women.

"Seriously,” argues Louise Perry in the introduction of her upcoming book, A New Guide to Sex in the 21st Century. A good old-fashioned feminist, Louise believes that casual sex is not, by and large, good for women; she made that case in The Free Press’s first-ever live debate, and in her explosive debut book, The Case Against the Sexual Revolution.

Her follow-up, out March 10, is “the young adult adaptation” of the earlier book’s argument. In it, Louise takes apart the assumptions of liberal, “sex-positive” feminism, which have been absorbed by so many young Americans. She comes to radical yet sensible conclusions, like: Not all desires should be acted on. Sex is better when you’re committed to your partner. Hookup culture is popular with men—but that doesn’t mean women have to participate in it.

Louise joined Bari on Honestly recently, to explain exactly how the sexual revolution has benefited men at the expense of women. You can listen to their conversation below, watch the video recording here—or scroll down to read an exclusive excerpt of Louise’s book.

https://www.thefp.com/p/loveless-sex-is-not-empowering?r=1u30be&triedRedirect=true

M2 VELOCITY ABRUPTLY REVERSES (JUST LIKE 2004-2008)

THIS IMAGE DEPICTS a chart of the money velocity (rate at which cash is moving through the economy) going all the way back to 1960. Until recently, in a downward trajectory (near historic lows). QT or

QE? You decide.

NOTE THE FAR RIGHT hand side (black circle); this uptrend is ushering in a new wave of inflation. This uptrend is the result of EXCESSIVE DEBT in the form of currency, chasing the same/or even a lesser amount of goods.

SLASHING RATES WILL throw gasoline on this fire and the dollar will

lose purchasing power faster. It could also usher in monetization of the debt. The last time we saw this particular trajectory was 2004-2008.

GREG MANNARINO OF TradersChoice elaborates in the video [comment].

Yesterday was the canary in the coal mine. Consider the thick grey vertical bar on the chart which followed the last major surge in M2 velocity.

<BREAKING> PPl numbers today hotter than forecast, but not excessively so.

Texas’ own stock exchange, which is expected to execute its first trades at the end of the year, is continuing to attract new business.

Texas’ own stock exchange, which is expected to execute its first trades at the end of the year, is continuing to attract new business.

The TXSE, based in Dallas, will act as a national exchange to offer global access for companies to list and trade shares. It will also “provide access to exchange traded funds in a range of data services,” TXSE Group Inc. Founder and CEO James Lee said in October when he and Gov. Greg Abbott announced the leadership of the newly formed Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE).

The TXSE will also provide an alternative to the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, Lee said, pointing to Texas providing an alternative to greater regulatory burdens in New York, including those related to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), The Center Square reported.

https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/financial-capital-america-nyse-launching-texas?

utm_medium=social_media&utm_source=twitter_social_icon&utm_campaign=social_icons via @JustTheNews

Popular real estate entrepreneur insists US is still suffering through a 'difficult' market

EXCERPT

Sunny skies aren’t shining across America’s real estate market just yet, according to one of the nation’s top experts and "Shark Tank" entrepreneurs.

"No one wants to move and [there are] fewer houses to choose from at higher rates. So it's difficult for homebuyers," Corcoran Group founder Barbara Corcoran said on "Mornings with Maria," Thursday.

Mortgage rates are moving down "by a fraction of a point," Corcoran pointed out while reacting to 30-year fixed rates falling to 6.96% – the lowest level in six weeks. As of Thursday, the 15-year fixed loan rate was at 6.21%.

However, in Corcoran’s view, rates aren’t low enough for sellers to list their homes. Redfin reported in December that more than half (54.5%) of homes on the market had been listed for more than 60 days, with many deemed too expensive by would-be buyers.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/popular-real-estate-entrepreneur-insists-us-still-suffering-through-difficult-market #FoxBusiness

A crisis of finPopular real estate entrepreneur insists US is still suffering through a 'difficult' market

EXCERPT

Sunny skies aren’t shining across America’s real estate market just yet, according to one of the nation’s top experts and "Shark Tank" entrepreneurs.

"No one wants to move and [there are] fewer houses to choose from at higher rates. So it's difficult for homebuyers," Corcoran Group founder Barbara Corcoran said on "Mornings with Maria," Thursday.

Mortgage rates are moving down "by a fraction of a point," Corcoran pointed out while reacting to 30-year fixed rates falling to 6.96% – the lowest level in six weeks. As of Thursday, the 15-year fixed loan rate was at 6.21%.

However, in Corcoran’s view, rates aren’t low enough for sellers to list their homes. Redfin reported in December that more than half (54.5%) of homes on the market had been listed for more than 60 days, with many deemed too expensive by would-be buyers.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/popular-real-estate-entrepreneur-insists-us-still-suffering-through-difficult-market #FoxBusiness

ancing.

Let's look at coffee as an example.

Producers have the coffee, but the banks won't finance importers and big roasters, because it has become too risky.  That negatively affects demand, and the investment funds pull out, and the market crashes.

Yes, extreme price spikes in the Arabica coffee market often lead to demand destruction, which then triggers a price correction. Here's how the cycle typically unfolds:

1. Price Surge Causes Demand Destruction

When prices rise too high, coffee roasters and buyers reduce their purchases or switch to cheaper alternatives (like Robusta coffee).

Consumers face higher prices for coffee, leading to lower consumption or shifts to lower-cost blends.

Some buyers, particularly smaller roasters or traders, may exit the market due to financing constraints.

2. Liquidity Crisis Freezes the Market

If banks and lenders refuse to finance purchases due to extreme prices and high risks, market liquidity dries up.

Some buyers default on contracts, and trading activity declines.

Large roasters may delay purchases, betting on a future price drop.

3. Oversupply Develops as Buyers Pull Back

Farmers and exporters, expecting high prices, continue to harvest and ship coffee.

With fewer buyers in the market, coffee stockpiles build up in warehouses.

The sudden drop in demand leads to an imbalance between supply and consumption.

4. Price Correction Follows

As stockpiles increase and buyers hold back, prices begin to fall.

Panic selling may occur as traders and producers offload coffee at lower prices to avoid further losses.

Speculative traders who drove up prices may exit their positions, accelerating the decline.

5. Market Stabilizes at a Lower Price

Once prices drop to a more sustainable level, demand returns as roasters and buyers re-enter the market.

If the price falls too low, farmers may reduce production, eventually tightening supply again.

Historical Examples of This Cycle

1. 1994 Frost Crisis → Prices hit $2.75/lb, causing demand destruction, and fell back to $1.00/lb within two years.

2. 1997–1999 Speculative Bubble → Prices surged to $3.00/lb, then crashed below $1.00/lb.

3. 2010–2011 Price Spike → Hit $3.08/lb, but by 2013 had corrected below $1.50/lb.

4. 2021–2022 Supply Chain Rally → Prices hit $2.60/lb, but dropped below $1.50/lb by 2023.

Conclusion

Yes, demand destruction inevitably leads to a price correction in the Arabica coffee market.

The key takeaway is that commodity markets are cyclical, and extreme price spikes usually collapse under their own weight when liquidity vanishes and buyers pull back.

On the surface, it seems like a great idea to cut interest rates for credit cards, but let's look at the impact.

Banks are already throttling credit card lines of credit because Trump announced plan to cap outrageous interest rates.  Consumers who were give very large credit lines, are now receiving letters alerting that their credit card limit is being reduced. Many consumers were using their credit cards for daily living expense, then making minimum payments.

Credit Card defaults are at a record level.

At the same time, zillion of $$$ are being cut from NGO'S and terminated government employees.

This will also curb credit card purchasing, and impact home refinancing / second mortages because of credit rating damage.

As demand drops, there will be fewer dollars used for travel, restaurants, salons, and all retail.

Credit card defaults in 2024 have surged to their highest level since 2010, with lenders writing off over $46 billion in seriously delinquent loans during the first nine months of the year, marking a 50% increase from 2023. This rise in defaults reflects the financial strain on consumers, particularly among lower-income households.

Consumer financial health could impact banks and financial institutions much more than inflated real estate derivitives did in 2008

Considering the 5x impact of "velocity of money", this will have a big impact on the economy.

A good time to focus on competive marketing.  Think "Market Share".