THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER CHAPTER:
LEARN FROM HISTORY OF THE BIG CYCES OF THE DUTCH EMPIRE

💥💥Ray Dalio is brilliant. You might enjoy reading this. Lots of insight into how and why these empires fell, and easy to see where we are.
I am a student of Peter Drucker, who was also brilliant. When any society moves away from basic principles of productivity, community, and traditional moral values, it collapses.💥💥


Chapter 4: The Big Cycles.
Principled

THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER
CHAPTER:
THE BIG CYCES OF THE DUTCH

Ray Dalio

Chapter 4: The Big
Cycles of the Dutch and
British Empires and Their
Currencies

May 21, 2020
RAY DALIO

Founder, ClO Mentor, and Member
of the Bridgewater Board

Note: To make this an easier
and shorter article to read, I
tried to convey the most
important points in simple
language and bolded them, so
you can get the gist of the whole thing in just a few minutes by focusing on what's in bold. Past chapters from the series can be found here:

Introduction, Chapter 1
and Chapter 2. Additionally if
you want a simple and
entertaining 30-minute
explanation of how what a lot
of what I'm talking about here
works, see "How the Economic
Machine Works," which is
available on YouTube.

In Chapter 1 ("The Big Picture in
a Tiny Nutshell"), I looked at the
archetypical rises and declines
of empires and their reserve
currencies and the various
types of powers that they
gained and lost, and in Chapter
2 ("The Big Cycle of Money,
Credit, Debt, and Economic
Activity) and its appendix
("The Changing Value of
Money") I reviewed the big
money, credit, and debt
cycles.

In this chapter, I will
review the rises and declines
of the Dutch, British, and
American empires and their
reserve currencies and will
touch on the rise of the
Chinese empire.

While the evolution of
empires and currencies is one
continuous story that started
before there was recorded
history, in this chapter I am
going to pick up the story
around the vear 1600.

My objective is simply to put
where we are in perspective
of history and bring us up to
date. I will begin by very
briefly reviewing what the Big
Cvcle looks like and then scan
through the last 500 years to
show these Big Cycles playing
out before examining more
closely the declines of the Dutch
and British empires and their
reserve currencies.

Then I will show how the decline of the British empire and the
pound evolved into the rise of
the US empire and US dollar
and I will take a glimpse at
the emergence of the Chinese
next empire and the Chinese
renminbi.

That will bring us up to the
present and prepare us to try
to think about what will come
The Big Cycle of the Life of an
Empire

Just as there is a human life
cycle that typically lasts about
80 years (give or take) and no
two are exactly the same but
most are similar, there is an
analogous empire life cycle
that has its own typical
patterns. For example, for
most of us, during the first
phase of life we are under our
parents' guidance and learn in
school until we are about 18-24,
at which point we enter the
second phase. In this phase we
work, become parents, and take care of others who are trying to
be successful. We do this until
we are about 55-65, at which
time we enter the third phase
when we become free of
obligations and eventually
die. It is pretty easy to tell
what phases people are in
because of obvious markers.